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1.
Rebuilding Communities After Displacement: Sustainable and Resilience Approaches ; : 421-438, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-20243623

ABSTRACT

Ten years after the Great East Japan Earthquake, reconstruction projects are progressing in the affected areas and new towns are being formed. However, the recent spread of COVID-19 infection is thought to have affected interactions among residents. In this study, we conducted a multiple-choice questionnaire survey in the Taro district of Miyako City, Iwate Prefecture, which was severely damaged by the Great East Japan Earthquake, to investigate residents' social capital. Cross-tabulations, chi-square tests, and residual analysis revealed the following trends. First, most respondents indicated that the frequency of interaction with local residents and community activities decreased or remained the same after the earthquake. Second, Changes in residents' social capital compared to pre-disaster levels are significantly related to their social capital now, 10 years after the earthquake. Finally, respondents with no roommates and female respondents showed a higher rate of decline in social capital compared to pre-disaster levels. In the disaster-affected areas, the importance of social capital is becoming increasingly recognized for promoting future reconstruction community planning and inhibiting solitary death. It is necessary to respond to residents whose social capital is likely to decline more than before the disaster, such as women and those who live alone. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023. All rights reseverd.

2.
Sustainability ; 15(11):8446, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-20240956

ABSTRACT

The earthquake disaster has an impact on tourist visit intention. This study aims to investigate tourist behavior in the post-earthquake disaster linkage between information sources (word of mouth and electronic word of mouth) and risk perception toward tourists' visit intentions to a destination in Indonesia. This study applies the SOR theory to predict tourists' behavior in the destination aftermath. The Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model was used to examine the hypothesis of the study. The result found that information sources (electronic word of mouth and word of mouth) significantly influenced visit intention in the time of post-earthquake disaster. The risk perception has not significantly influenced visit intention in post-earthquake disasters. The discussion and conclusion of the study are discussed herein. Overall, the findings of the study may contribute to the theory by adding information sources to predict tourist behavior post-earthquake disaster and also gives a practical contribution to the tourism sector, stakeholders, tourism marketers, and policymakers in Indonesia to enhance the marketing strategy by considering destination promotion through word of mouth (offline) and electronic word of mouth (online) and its mechanism on tourists' travel decision in the time of aftermath.

3.
Duzce Medical Journal ; 25(1):6-14, 2023.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-20236341

ABSTRACT

The earthquake has long-lasting various mental and behavioral effects on children and adolescents. The aim of this review was to discuss the nature and extent of psychiatric problems, management options, and the process of organizing psychological interventions for affected children. Individuals show a range of physically, emotionally, and cognitively healthy responses that can help them cope with the aftermath of a disaster. Psychiatric symptoms such as acute stress reactions, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety disorder, increased risk of suicide, sleep disorders, substance use disorders, and psychotic disorders may develop in some children. Comorbidities and sub-clinical syndromes are also common. There are many risk factors and protective factors in the development of mental disorders. Close follow-up of children at high risk and interventions for psychosocial support may prevent the development of mental disorders. It is very important to start the intervention at the earliest period. The psychological impacts of young disaster victims can be addressed by skilled local volunteers, medical professionals, and educators in primary health care programs. With the nation's overall social and economic recovery, children can recover more quickly from traumatic experiences.Copyright © 2023, Duzce University Medical School. All rights reserved.

4.
Paediatria Croatica ; 64(2):103-110, 2020.
Article in Croatian | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-20236109

ABSTRACT

Donated human milk is the best substitute for breast milk in the case when the mother cannot feed her baby. Human milk banks provide safe and high quality donated human milk. That was the reason why the Human Milk Bank was established in the Croatian Tissue and Cell Bank at the Zagreb University Hospital Centre in January 2020. The Bank works in accordance with the Law on the Application of Human Tissues and Cells. In this paper, we present the results of the Bank work since from its opening until June 2020. Due to logistic reasons caused by the COVID-19 epidemic and the earthquake in Zagreb, the Human Milk Bank did not collect milk for 43 days. Milk was donated by 31 mothers. Their median age was 31 years and 81% of them had high education level. In 52% of cases, mothers started donating milk three months after giving birth. Most donors donated milk only once (45%). The median period of donation was 46 days. The majority (52%) of donors gave birth for the first time, in the expected term of childbirth (94%), birth weight was >2500 g. Only three of donors' children (9%) were in intensive care. A total of 175.5 L of milk were collected (mean 5.7 L per donor), of which 151.5 L met the requirements of input quality control, and 141 L were pasteurized. A critical number of viable aerobic and facultative bacteria were identified in 32.6% of milk pools prepared for pasteurization, and 8.9% after pasteurization. For clinical use, 78.7 L were dispensed in three neonatal intensive care units. The Human Milk Bank has already shown the importance of its activities during the first months of operation. In order to be able to meet the needs for donated human milk at the national level, it is necessary to constantly inform mothers about the importance of human milk and to promote its donation.Copyright © 2020 Croatian Paediatric Society. All rights reserved.

5.
The Palgrave Handbook of Climate Resilient Societies: Volumes 1-2 ; 1:855-882, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-20235374

ABSTRACT

The majority of people living in Wellington City, New Zealand, appreciate what the city has to offer. It has a positive reputation and clean air, and it is a compact, walkable city, which means that greenhouse gas emissions are the lowest per capita when compared with other centers in New Zealand. However, the city has experienced a number of setbacks in recent years. A very large earthquake in the South Island in 2016 badly affected buildings in central Wellington, some of which had to be demolished, with many others requiring significant repairs. Housing stock is therefore in high demand and costly, which is leading to homelessness and expensive rentals. Already under pressure to deal with the cost of repairs to key civic buildings in the city center and with reduced income from the loss of tourism due to Covid, the city has also been hit with major leaks to its aging three waters infrastructure, which has been underfunded for too many years. Although the Wellington City Council declared a climate and ecological emergency in 2019, this has not noticeably changed behaviors. Water is commonly used to excess (it is free);the volume of municipal waste is among the highest in the OECD;there is a high proportion of car ownership;and public transport is diesel powered and underfunded. The council has developed some excellent programs of work, but multiple crises, combined with tight funding, appear to be hindering Wellington's progress toward becoming a world-leading climate-resilient city. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021.

6.
Cadernos de Saude Publica ; 39(4) (no pagination), 2023.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-20234673
7.
Open Geosciences ; (1)2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-20234022

ABSTRACT

The 2022 (M 6.8) Luding earthquake on the Xianshuihe Fault Zone (XFZ) caused severe casualties and property losses, and surface deformation and damage of which is crucial for studying the earthquake hazard assessment. However, few intensive scientific understanding has obtained to date because of widespread coronavirus transmission, strong vegetation coverage, and post-earthquake paralyzed traffic. By integrating high-resolution satellite images, large-scale geomorphic mapping, and UAV surveys, we constrain coseismic fractures and ruptures along an NW-SE-trending surface deformation zone, with discontinuous geomorphic scarps, en echelon cracks, and bulges concentrated in the areas of Yanzigou, Moxi, Menghugang, and Xingfu villages near the epicenter. Field observation also shows that the zone extends nearly parallel to the pre-existing XFZ with a length of ∼35 km with variable widths and a maximum vertical displacement of ∼100 ± 10 cm. The earthquake-induced surface coseismic effects, such as landslides, rock falls, and collapses, caused damage to the area. The amplification effect of the topography and the improper aseismic design and poor constructions may be responsible for the spatial distribution of MM Intensity IX, which is larger than other previous earthquakes that occurred in the surrounding area with a similar tectonic setting.

8.
Energy Policy ; 179:113634, 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-20230852

ABSTRACT

In 2012, an earthquake struck one of Italy's most productive and dynamic areas, the Emilia-Romagna region. Just as policy makers are today considering green and climate-conscious investments to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2012, the regional government granted specific energy retrofitting contributions to manufacturing and service firms affected by the seismic event. Through a panel data analysis, we evaluate the impact of such energy policy measures on firm-level labour productivity to assess the presence of non-zero multipliers. We find that energy retrofitting through regional aids positively affected firms' labour productivity. We discuss the energy and economic policy implications of such intervention in the current framework of fiscal recovery packages.

9.
J Transp Geogr ; 110: 103622, 2023 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20230824

ABSTRACT

Although there is a growing body of literature on the COVID-19 pandemic and the implemented strategies that have imposed additional risks in tackling emergencies by increasing socio-economic vulnerabilities, studies on human evacuation behavior during lockdowns are lacking. This paper contributes to evacuation and emergency research by examining seismic evacuation decision-making by surveying the areas affected by the Luding earthquake on 5 September 2022, when most parts of Sichuan province were experiencing strict pandemic restrictions. Using these data and per the emergency evacuation decision-making mechanism, we developed six hierarchical series of logistic regression models. Our major results suggest that 1) Socio-demographic parameters have shown different correlations with the study's dependent variables in each stage of those hierarchical models, 2) Respondents at home at the time of the earthquake were more likely to identify the earthquake risk than those who stayed outdoors; the former group showed less willingness to evacuate, 3) Rural residents have perceived higher earthquake risks than urban residents, and 4) Loss of job, change in income due to COVID-19 restrictions, and difficulty accessing daily supplies during the lockdown affected the residents' risk assessment and evacuation decision-making negatively. Insights into these aspects are expected to contribute to a better understanding of evacuation behavior during double disasters by modifying emergency response regulations and providing the residents with information about emergencies during pandemic restrictions.

10.
International Journal of Healthcare Technology and Management ; 19(3-4):237-259, 2022.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-2318640

ABSTRACT

The aim of this research is to describe the use of telemedicine applied to patients characterised by a particular state of illness, which often drives them toward a frail and chronic status, in a systematic manner. This work employed the Tranfield approach to carry out a systematic literature review (SLR), in order to provide an efficient and high-quality method for identifying and evaluating extensive studies. The methodology was pursued step by step, analysing keywords, topics, journal quality to arrive at a set of relevant open access papers that was analysed in detail. The same papers were compared to each other and then, they were categorised according to significant metrics, also evaluating technologies and methods employed. Through our systematic review we found that most of the patients involved in telemedicine programs agreed with this service model and the clinical results appeared encouraging. Findings suggested that telemedicine services were appreciated by patients, they increased the access to care and could be a better way to face emergencies and pandemics, lowering overall costs and promoting social inclusion.Copyright © 2022 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

11.
Circulation Conference: American Heart Association's Epidemiology and Prevention/Lifestyle and Cardiometabolic Health ; 145(Supplement 1), 2022.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-2318192

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Stress is associated with multiple adverse health outcomes, including hypertension. The impact of stress on health may be moderated by social support. The distribution of stress, support, and their association with hypertension have not been well described in low-income countries that face severe poverty. Over the past decade, Haiti has suffered massive natural disasters including the 2010 earthquake, cholera outbreak, COVID-19 pandemic, and recurrent civil instability-all of which may act as prolonged stressors.Hypothesis: We assessed the hypotheses that 1) there are high levels of both stress and support in Haiti, and 2) high support would moderate the relationship between high stress and hypertension. Method(s): We measured stress and social support using validated instruments in a population-representative cohort of adults living in urban Port-au-Prince, Haiti between March 2019 and April 2021. Stress was measured using the Perceived Stress Scale, while social support was measured using the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support. For visualization, continuous scores were categorized using equal-width groups (stress: low (1-5), moderate (6-10), high (11-16);support: low (7-21), low-moderate (22-35), moderate (36-49), moderate-high (50-64), high (65-77)). Linear regression models were used to quantify the associations between: 1) stress and support adjusting for age and sex, 2) blood pressure and stress adjusting for age and sex. A formal moderation analysis was conducted to assess if support moderated the relationship between stress and blood pressure. Result(s): Among 2,817 adults, 59.7% female and the median age was 40 years (IQR 28-55). The majority had an income of less than 1 US dollar a day (69.7%). The median stress score was 8 out of 16 points, and median support score was 61 out of 77 points. Stress was higher with older ages (60+ years versus 18-29 years: +0.79 points, 95% CI 0.51 to 1.08) and in females (+0.85 points, 95% CI +0.65 to +1.06). Support was higher in males (+3.29 points, 95% CI 2.19 to 4.39). Support was inversely associated with stress, adjusting for age and sex (-0.04 points, 95% CI -0.04 to -0.03). Stress was not associated with systolic or diastolic blood pressure after adjustment for age and sex. Support did not moderate the association between stress and blood pressure. Conclusion(s): In this urban cohort of Haitian adults living with chronic civil instability, stress was moderate and support was high. While support was associated with lower stress, it did not moderate the relationship between stress and blood pressure. Despite the high levels of instability in Haiti, participants displayed resiliency through high levels of support, which may be an underutilized resource in reducing stress and long-term negative health outcomes.

12.
Cureus ; 14(7): e26926, 2022 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2307121

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: When natural disasters strike, there is a sudden decrease in access to care due to infrastructure loss and displacement. A pandemic has the similar ability to acutely limit access to care. The relationship between decreased access to care and natural disasters has been previously explored. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article is to present a focused review of the available and emerging literature regarding the overall impact of natural disasters and pandemics on unintended pregnancy and decreased care in this setting. METHODS: A literature search was conducted on PubMed, Cochrane, Google Scholar, and Embase databases. The search was restricted to studies that were population-based, prospective or retrospective. Only peer-reviewed articles were considered. The search was further restricted to manuscripts in English or officially translated manuscripts. All qualifying papers from which data were extracted were subjected to a quality assessment conducted by two independent investigators (SK and AA). Each investigator reviewed all nine papers relevant to data collection using the Effective Public Health Practice Project (EPHP). MeSH terms were utilized across various databases. Studies were selected that were population-based, prospective or retrospective. Case reports and case series were not used. The primary outcomes were the rates of unintended pregnancy. Secondary outcomes included the use of contraception, short interval pregnancy, and access to reproductive services. RESULTS: An initial search yielded 74 papers, of which nine papers were reviewed for qualitative data, examining the subjects affected by natural disasters or pandemics. An additional two papers regarding theoretical data and COVID-19 were analyzed. Although there seems to be a rise in unintended pregnancy and more difficulty accessing care following natural disasters and pandemics, there are variations in the rates based on region and event. CONCLUSIONS: The full effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the rates of unplanned pregnancies will become apparent in the months and years to come. As obstetrician-gynecologists, we must communicate openly with our patients regarding the use of available contraception, sexual education, and family planning services at times of natural disasters and pandemics.

13.
Socijalna Psihijatrija ; 50(4):389-416, 2023.
Article in English, Croatian | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-2290767

ABSTRACT

This cross-sectional trend study compared the intensity of internalised problems of adolescents in the City of Zagreb before the COVID-19 pandemic and during its 4th wave. Two groups of secondary school students participated in the research: (1) 1st grade secondary school students in 2016 (N=267, Mage= 15.16, SDage= 0.468, 61.6% females) and (2) 1st grade secondary school students in 2021 (N =353, M age =14.78, SDage= 0.468, 45.9% females). Using the DASS-21 questionnaire, a growing trend of internalised problems was identified. In December 2021, 20.6% of students had severe and very severe symptoms of depression compared to 15.0% of students in 2016. In 2016 and 2021, 13.4% and as many as 33.0% of students, respectively, had severe and very severe symptoms of anxiety. Symptoms of this level of stress were present in 20.2% of students in 2016, and in 25.4% in 2021. A higher level of depression, anxiety and stress was found in females, as well as in students whose families suffered material damage in the Zagreb earthquake. Students of lower financial status reported significantly higher levels of anxiety and stress. Maladaptive coping strategies are significant predictors of depression, anxiety and stress. A significant predictor of depression is also lower self-esteem, parental rejection and greater dissatisfaction with physical appearance predict higher anxiety, and female gender higher stress. The data show that the mental health of Zagreb secondary school students was at high risk even before the COVID-19 pandemic and earthquakes, and these adverse circumstances increased that risk.Copyright © 2023 Medicinska Naklada Zagreb. All rights reserved.

14.
International Journal of Social Economics ; 50(5):662-674, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2294366

ABSTRACT

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of earthquakes on the labor market. The authors try to estimate the impact of two major earthquakes (Izmir and Elazig) in Turkey.Design/methodology/approachIn order to analyze the effects of devastating earthquakes in the nearby regions of the province where the earthquake took place, on the labor market, monthly and annual data from the TUIK and ISKUR database will be used. For this purpose, the authors consider the earthquake a natural experiment and employ a Synthetic Control Method (SCM). In addition, the analysis will be carried out using seasonally adjusted data, taking into account the seasonal effects of the monthly data to be used in the study.FindingsThe results show that the impact varies based on the labor market structure of the regions. While the earthquake positively affects the labor market of agriculture-oriented regions, it harms the labor market of nonagricultural-oriented regions.Research limitations/implicationsA major limitation of the study is that we cannot fully separate the impact of Covid-19 from our estimate. The authors believe that Covid-19 overestimates the negative impact of earthquakes on the labor market.Social implicationsEarthquakes have adverse effects on the labor market. The estimation of the earthquake-related costs may provide a useful guide on policy planning and government incentives.Originality/valueThe originality of the study lies in the fact that this is the first study to evaluate how the dynamics of the labor market has changed as a result of the earthquakes that have taken place in Turkey, within the framework of causality.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2022-0568

15.
Int J Soc Psychiatry ; : 207640221130966, 2022 Nov 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2298682

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic led to the disruption of mental health services in most countries. Croatia has been developing and strengthening its mental health system, including the introduction of community mental health teams (CMHT) for persons with severe mental illness (SMI), whose implementation was ongoing during the pandemic through the RECOVER-E project. AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess the differences in mental health outcomes, perceived social support and healthcare utilization in the group of participants receiving treatment as usual (TAU group) compared to the group receiving TAU and additional care by the CMHT (CMHT group) during the COVID-19 pandemic and two earthquakes. METHOD: This is a cross-sectional survey administered among 90 participants with SMI at two time points: in May/June 2020 (first COVID-19 wave, earthquake) and in December 2020/January 2021 (second COVID-19 wave, earthquake). RESULTS: A significantly larger proportion of participants from the CMHT group visited the general practitioners in both waves of COVID-19 (first wave: CMHT 72.1%, TAU 44.2%, p = .009; second wave: CMHT 91.1%, TAU 64.1%, p = .003), as well as psychiatric services in the second wave (CMHT 95.3%, TAU 79.5%, p = .028). The use of long-acting injectables was also more frequent in the CMHT group (p = .039). Furthermore, analysis of the first wave showed higher perceived support of significant others (p = .004) in the CMHT group. We did not identify any differences in mental health outcomes between groups in either wave. CONCLUSIONS: While mental health outcomes did not differ between TAU and CMHT group, people in CMHT used services and treatments more frequently than those in TAU during the pandemic, which may indicate that CMHT services enable the continuity and accessibility of care for people with SMI under the circumstances where standard care is interruped (for example pandemic, disaster conditions).

16.
Health Sciences Review ; 7 (no pagination), 2023.
Article in English | EMBASE | ID: covidwho-2285290

ABSTRACT

Background: Natural disasters and pandemics can be highly challenging to blood supply chains. This review aimed to assess the impacts of pandemics and natural disasters on blood donation globally, appraise any similarities and differences, and provide an overview of the mitigation strategies and optimizations applied as well as risks modelling undertaken. Method(s): Full text, peer-reviewed articles that studied the impact of any pandemic and natural disaster on blood donation, blood supply management, and modelling searchable in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library between Jan 1980 and Jan 2023, inclusive were included. We performed quality assessments and summarised potential lessons learned. Result(s): Overall, 98 studies were identified and assessed in this review, of which 58 were related to pandemics and 17 related to natural disasters. 97% of the studies on pandemics and blood donation were on COVID-19, while 88% of studies on natural disasters were on earthquakes. We confirmed that during the COVID-19 pandemic, blood donation numbers decreased compared to the pre-pandemic period, while just after an earthquake, blood donation numbers tended to increase, which in both cases put the blood supply chain under pressure (creating shortage or wastage). The increase of first-time donors was higher after a sudden destructive earthquake than after the COVID-19 pandemic. Public awareness campaigns, donors transportation, home visits, measures to minimize wastage of blood components, activation of contingency plans, and altering donor eligibility criteria were implemented to help the blood supply chain to respond to the demand and reduce wastage. However, no pandemic plans, per se were identified highlighting the lack of an emergency plan in collaboration with health authorities. Several optimization models were developed to help the blood supply chain reduce costs and identify faster transportation in times of earthquake, however, optimization models targeting a pandemic were lacking, as were risk modelling analyses for both events. Conclusion(s): Optimization models, risk modelling, serosurveillance and haemovigilance should be combined with infectious diseases case surveillance to better prepare the whole supply chain logistics to safely attend the demand. Findings on blood donor demographics were inconclusive during or after major events, which highlight the need for further investigations.Copyright © 2023 The Authors

17.
Crisis ; 2021 Dec 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2275101

ABSTRACT

Background: People who experienced the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) were expected to have additional levels of psychological burden resulting from the stressful conditions imposed during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic; consequently, suicide rates may increase. Aim: We aimed to carry out continuous monitoring of suicide rates in the affected area following the GEJE under COVID-19 pandemic conditions. Method: This descriptive study monitored the suicide rates of the coastal area of Miyagi Prefecture, where disaster-related mental health activities have been continuing following severe damage caused by the tsunami disaster. An exponential smoothing time-series analysis that converted suicide rates into a smooth trend was conducted. Results: Although the suicide rate in the affected area was higher than the national average in February 2020, it showed a declining trend during the COVID-19 pandemic, while showing an increase trend in the national and non-affected areas. Limitations: Uncertainty about the direct reasons for suicide and the short time-scale observation are the limitations of this study. Conclusion: Although the national suicide rate increased, this was not the case for the affected area. Our findings may provide important lessons for suicide prevention during the COVID-19 pandemic, which needs careful regional monitoring of the state of suicide and of high-risk approaches such as disaster-related mental health activities.

18.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 20(6)2023 03 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2263813

ABSTRACT

Survivors of the Kumamoto earthquake of 2016 experienced the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak while carrying additional burdens that might bring inadequate coping. This cross-sectional survey aimed to identify untreated and interrupted consultations among those with hypertension and related factors and to identify the disaster's long-term effects. Of the 19,212 earthquake survivors who had moved to permanent housing, 7367 (4196 women and 3171 men, mean age 61.8 ± 17.3 years) completed a self-administered questionnaire. The prevalence of hypertension was 41.4%. The results of the logistic regression analysis with the significant independent variables in the bivariate analysis were: reduced income due to COVID-19 (AOR = 3.23, 95%CI = 2.27-4.58) and poor self-rated health (AOR = 2.49, 95%CI = 1.72-3.61) were associated with a risk of untreated or discontinued treatment. Moreover, living in rental, public or restoration public housing was also significantly associated with a higher risk of hypertension noncompliance (AOR = 1.92, 95%CI = 1.20-3.07; AOR = 2.47, 95%CI = 1.38-4.42; AOR = 4.12, 95%CI = 1.14-14.90). These results suggest that changes due to COVID-19, the extent of self-rated health and the type of permanent housing influence the hypertension consulting behaviour of earthquake survivors during recovery. It is crucial to implement long-term public support for the mental health, income and housing concerns of the survivors.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Earthquakes , Hypertension , Male , Humans , Female , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Pandemics , Cross-Sectional Studies , COVID-19/epidemiology , Public Housing , Hypertension/epidemiology
19.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(24)2022 12 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2261540

ABSTRACT

There exists a need for a simple, deterministic, scalable, and accurate model that captures the dominant physics of pandemic propagation. We propose such a model by adapting a physical earthquake/aftershock model to COVID-19. The aftershock model revealed the physical basis for the statistical Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model as a highly non-linear diffusion process, thus permitting a grafting of the underlying physical equations into a formulation for calculating infection pressure propagation in a pandemic-type model. Our model shows that the COVID-19 pandemic propagates through an analogous porous media with hydraulic properties approximating beach sand and water. Model results show good correlations with reported cumulative infections for all cases studied. In alphabetical order, these include Austria, Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, New Zealand, Melbourne (AU), Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the USA. Importantly, the model is predominantly controlled by one parameter (α), which modulates the societal recovery from the spread of the virus. The obtained recovery times for the different pandemic waves vary considerably from country to country and are reflected in the temporal evolution of registered infections. These results provide an intuition-based approach to designing and implementing mitigation measures, with predictive capabilities for various mitigation scenarios.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Earthquakes , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemics , Models, Statistical
20.
Disasters ; 2022 Jul 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2275733

ABSTRACT

This paper contains transdisciplinary reflections from both scientists and local NGO (nongovernmental organisation) managers on the international small island tourism destination of Gili Trawangan, Indonesia. These viewpoints centre on the impacts of, as well as the short- and long-term adaptation strategies and sustainability opportunities associated with, two disasters that occurred in rapid succession: the earthquakes that struck Lombok in 2018; and the COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020. A brief review of the governance challenges facing Gili Trawangan sets up the analysis of the findings and the presentation of new empirical insights into how the island's communities have dealt with two unique disaster scenarios over the past three years. The paper draws on a community resilience framework premised on social capital and collective action theories to position the island's ability to transition towards sustainable tourism in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. It concludes by laying out sustainability opportunities going forward.

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